Amid the public drama of Trump’s warship appeals and allied non-commitments, the most consequential conversations about the Strait of Hormuz crisis may be happening behind closed doors between China and Iran. Beijing is reportedly in discussions with Tehran about allowing oil tankers to transit the blocked strait safely — a diplomatic process that leverages China’s unique relationship with Iran and its enormous dependence on Gulf crude to potentially produce the only near-term route to any form of relief. The content and progress of these talks is not public, but their existence is acknowledged by multiple parties including the US energy secretary.
Iran’s blockade of the strait began in late February as retaliation for US-Israeli airstrikes and has generated the most severe oil supply disruption in history. One-fifth of global oil exports ordinarily flow through the passage. Tehran has attacked sixteen tankers and declared vessels bound for American or allied ports to be legitimate military targets. The threat of mines adds a further dimension to the crisis. China, which depends on Gulf oil for a major share of its energy needs and maintains close diplomatic ties with Tehran, has both the leverage and the incentive to seek an arrangement that allows at least some tankers to pass.
The public responses of named coalition partners have been uniformly non-committal. France ruled out sending ships while fighting continued. The UK explored lower-risk drone options. Japan described a very high deployment threshold. South Korea pledged careful deliberation. Germany questioned the EU’s Aspides mission’s effectiveness. No government committed warships. Against this backdrop of military stalemate, China’s quiet diplomacy with Tehran represents the most active and potentially most productive effort to find any path toward relief — even if the full scope of what is being discussed is not publicly known.
The contours of what China and Iran might be discussing can be inferred from the statements that have been made publicly. The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing would work to strengthen communication with relevant Middle Eastern parties and play a constructive role in de-escalation and peace. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he expected China to be a constructive partner in reopening the strait, adding that he had engaged in dialogue with several nations about the crisis. These statements suggest that the conversations are substantive and that Washington is being kept informed of at least their general direction.
The question of what concessions or arrangements might allow Iran to permit tanker passage without abandoning its broader strategic position is the central unknown. Iran has framed the blockade as retaliation for US-Israeli actions, so any arrangement that allows tanker passage would need to be framed in a way that does not appear to undermine that position. China’s ability to help Tehran achieve such a framing — while also addressing the oil supply needs of the broader oil-importing world, including China itself — makes Beijing the pivotal actor in the most important diplomatic channel currently operating in the entire Hormuz crisis.